[灌水]两万亿资金今解冻 封杀大盘下跌空间
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 64pt; mso-char-indent-count: 4.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">两万亿资金今解冻</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">封杀大盘下跌空间</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 108pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 9.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">2007-07-17 08:17:40</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 来源</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">: </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">每日经济新闻 </SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">今日解冻资金有两万亿之巨，极少量入市便能使股指急涨，但当涨过头时有人一定害怕明天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">CPI</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">数据，所以盘势肯定反复。不管如何反复，总之大跌不现实，所以投资者不如持股等待。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">郑步春</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">没了周末综合症，却弄出个“黑色星期一”。昨沪综指大跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">92</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">3822</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点，深综指跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">33</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点报</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">1057</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点。绩优蓝筹股跌幅大于股指，部分绩差股也有平台破位迹象。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">今日新股资金解冻，股指自然会有反攻，但稍冲高后仍将受制于经济指标和可能的加息预期，未来几天股指可能仍将平台整理。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36.15pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">牛皮市拖时间</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股指走势尚可，但在保险股上涨情况下，许多个股跑输大盘，部分个股中投资者损失极大。绩优股虽然昨日跌幅稍大，但持有此类个股投资者总体损失有限。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">笔者发现，图型类似林海股份</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">行情论坛</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">之类的绩差股有不少，当然也有一些绩差股很抗跌，一步不退，典型的如昌河股份</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">(</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">行情论坛</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">)</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">。未来大盘如果成交额继续缩小，那么将有越来越多的绩差股再度破位，而蓝筹股也免不了补跌。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">管理层手中有许多“靴子”，客观上起了拖延时间功效。降低或取消利息税这么简单的事，却分成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">N</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">步去走，偏不爽快地明朗化。一般理解是，加息和降低利息税最好有个时差，以免市场受冲击太大，所以如果拖着前者，那么后者也可能拖着。也就是说，即使本周公布</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">CPI</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">极高，也未必会于本周末加息。如果真这样，股指牛皮折腾将没完没了。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">对有关方面来说，或者过早发动行情并非最优，比如奥运，比如股指期货，又比如大非减持，过早将行情走完不一定有利。当然，没人会这么宣布，我们只能从消息面和利益去推测。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36.15pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">历史可能重演</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">从上证综指日</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">线或周</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">K</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">线来看，已可看出大三角型雏型，下轨已抬高到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">3600</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点一带，上轨在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">4200</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点稍上。该图形如果下周直接向上突破，一般意味着行情较大，因为图形尚未成熟，如果不断收敛地拖时间，那么上攻力度会受限。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">目前股指上行最大软肋听起来很怪，这就是印花税，如此高的印花税确实会使短线客“愤而离场”。目前有许多专家在呼吁单边征收，但笔者认为此事暂时还难，因为这意味着认错，这似乎苛求了一些。未来股指如果重现这两年牛气，可能需要些其它契机，这有几种可能，比如有关方面有所变通地出些利好，又比如碰巧重手整顿房市，再比如上市公司业绩远超预期。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">本周将公布</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">CPI</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">，本周四或周五又可能有“周末综合症”，周六或周日加息也就罢了，怕就怕还不加息。我们常在加息之类事上“出其不意”，所以具体哪天加息谁也不知。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">粗略地看，假如</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">或</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">CPI</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">数据较热，加息会在本周或未来两三周，这样时点便可能落在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">7</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月下旬或</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月上旬。巧的是，去年股指横盘数月，也正是从</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月起上涨。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 3.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">今日解冻资金有两万亿之巨，极少量入市便能使股指急涨，但当涨过头时有人一定害怕明天的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">CPI</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">数据，所以盘势肯定反复。不管如何反复，总之大跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P><FONT size=5>持股耐心等待时机吧！</FONT></P> <FONT color=#3300ff size=5><STRONG>中国股市投机过度，疯狂太甚，透支太多，因此，事到如今，“病来如山倒，病去如抽丝”，投资者只能耐心等待了。年内5000点基本是善良愿望，3000点之下才可能探底，2800一线可能是底部区域，对此，乐观者大可继续“不屑一顾”，谨慎者可继续参考之。 <BR></STRONG></FONT> 原文由 丑鱼儿 发表: <br><P><FONT size=5>持股耐心等待时机吧！</FONT></P><FONT color=#dd2222 size=6>不持股都不行,颈脖上绕了好几圈绳子!</FONT> <P>原文由 寒冬畅游 发表: <FONT color=#3300ff size=5><STRONG>中国股市投机过度，疯狂太甚，透支太多，因此，事到如今，“病来如山倒，病去如抽丝”，投资者只能耐心等待了。年内5000点基本是善良愿望，3000点之下才可能探底，2800一线可能是底部区域，对此，乐观者大可继续“不屑一顾”，谨慎者可继续参考之。 <BR></STRONG></FONT></P><P><FONT color=#ff0000 size=5>炒股我是外行。只晓得牛比熊可爱，牛可以耕田，熊要伤人！</FONT></P> 炒股我是外行。只晓得牛比熊可爱，牛可以耕田，熊要伤人！<br> 中国股市投机过度，疯狂太甚，透支太多，因此，事到如今，“病来如山倒，病去如抽丝”，投资者只能耐心等待了。年内5000点基本是善良愿望，3000点之下才可能探底，2800一线可能是底部区域，对此，乐观者大可继续“不屑一顾”，谨慎者可继续参考之。 <br><br>不持股都不行,颈脖上绕了好几圈绳子!<br><br> 都是高手！！！！谁是高人啊？？？！！！1 <FONT face=华文新魏 color=#00ffff size=6> <FONT color=#0968f7> 3000点是这次调整的底.高明!</FONT></FONT> 今天虽有巨额申购资金的解冻，成交量仍然没有明显放大，说明市场心态十分谨慎。由于大多数投资者的反应是后知后觉的，短期如果继续横盘或下跌，只会使成交量继续低迷，而如果短线继续上涨，则逐利资金会在指数形成突破之时追高杀入，推动指数大幅上涨。正如马太福音中所言：凡是少的，就连他所有的，也要夺过来；凡是多的，还要给他，叫他多多益善。<br> <BLOCKQUOTE><STRONG>引用</STRONG>： 胡寒梅<br><HR SIZE=1><br>原文由 <B>丑鱼儿</B> 发表: <BR><P><FONT size=5>持股耐心等待时机吧！</FONT></P><HR SIZE=1></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT color=#dd2222 size=6>不持股都不行,颈脖上绕了好几圈绳子!</FONT><BR>
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