[转贴]2007年的高点或在九月形成
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 48pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%">2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年的高点或在九月形成</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 24pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 204.75pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 19.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">王国强</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">今天大盘强势震荡，沪市在两行带动下以红盘报收。可以说短期大盘以盘中调整的方式完成了一次小的洗盘动作，接下来还将继续以上涨为主。预计盘升格局可以维持到下周</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">左右，小幅盘升，中阴洗盘的局面将贯穿整个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">8</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">今天两行的启动让人感到大盘的丝丝凉意，两行的上涨是以很多股票的下跌为代价的，它们的联袂上涨也自然让人联想到，红筹股的回归是不是已箭在弦上，因为假如红筹股高调回归的话，对两行这样大市值的股票定位应该有一定提升，两行的上涨自然就在情理之中。还有一点，假如红筹股成功回归，那么股指期货的推出时间还会远吗？当然我们联想到的这两点都应属于利空，因为果真如此的话，对市场的资金影响是很直接的。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">但从目前短期盘面看，大盘还是很安全的，时间规律上看</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">8</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月应属安全月；从点位来看，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">4700</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点左右还不能算太高；从个股来看，突然的一跌也很难改变上涨的趋势。但投资者也不能因此而大意，因为大盘拒绝调整的上涨，往往意味着在酝酿较大级别的调整，在人们精神放松的时候，就需要注意危险了，经过两年的上涨，牛市已经深入人心，牛市步伐不可阻挡，但投机客对牛市中的调整不可不防。牛市并不是一定没完没了的上涨，我认为当前这样的上涨还会继续维持，下周</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">左右注意小风险，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">9</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月份要注意大风险，尤其是假如</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">9</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月份能够达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">5200</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点以上的话，更要注意风险。假如今年的高点出现在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">5200</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点附近，时间出现在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">9</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月份，那么我们对</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2008</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年站在珠峰看奥运将更加期待。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2006</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">12</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月我写了《</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2008</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年站在珠峰看奥运》这篇文章，当时预计大盘在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">4000-5000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点会有高原反应，</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2000" Month="5" Day="30" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">5</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">30</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">4300</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点开始的下跌我们感觉到了一次高原反应，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">9</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月以后</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">5000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点以上会不会还有新的高原反应呢？让我们拭目以待。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">附《</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2008</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年站在珠峰看奥运》</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.25pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">有一个旅行团从海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="100" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">100</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">的成都出发去喜马拉雅山旅游，当行驶到海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="2245" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2245</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">时突遇一群猛兽，有人说看来我们要就此打道回府了，有一个叫许小年的人说：至少要到海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="1000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">处才是安全地带。经过了漫漫的跋涉，旅行团终于抵达海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="998" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">998</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">处的一个小镇，发现这里的确山清水秀，繁华似锦，人来人往，川流不息。旅行团的人告诉这里的人说山上很好玩，但是有猛兽出没。镇长听说后，热情的接待了旅行团成员，并许诺派出一个叫石化的带领全镇好汉陪同大家上山，石化带领大家很快返回海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="2245" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2245</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">处，这时有个叫工行的说：我的很多香港亲戚习惯于生活在海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="10000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">10000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">以上，我具有生活在高海拔地带的基因。下边的路我来领一段吧，工行很快带领大家上到了海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="2500" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">2500</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">处，这时有的人感觉有点呼吸急促，就说不如下去休息休息再上吧，工行说，即使休息也只能原地踏步，最多短暂休息一下就好了。有记者问旅行团新闻发言人王国强：此山最高峰海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="8848" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">8848</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">，我们这次旅行能到多高？王国强回答：海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="3000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">3000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">附近需要补充给养，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">4000<st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="5000" HasSpace="False" Negative="True" NumberType="1" TCSC="0">-5000<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"><SPAN lang=EN-US>米</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">处会有高原反应，但是我们还是准备</SPAN>2008</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年在海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="7000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">7000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">以上看奥运，当然我们的最终目标是在珠穆拉玛峰顶修建一座天梯，在天梯上修一座过街天桥直通现在海拔</SPAN><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" UnitName="米" SourceValue="19000" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue">19000</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">米</SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="COLOR: blue; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">的香港。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><FONT size=3><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN><o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 150%"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: blue"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <FONT face=隶书 color=#6d22dd size=6>指数节节爬高,偶的股票岿然不动.两位高人,指点指点吧.</FONT><br><br>［此帖子已被 胡寒梅 在 2007-8-10 8:58:08 编辑过］ <FONT size=6><STRONG>应理性看高!</STRONG></FONT> <FONT size=4>寒梅：跟着机构感觉走，一定要选择好票，虽然不一定要严防死守，但看准了就要坚持到底，今年许多好票可能我们都买过，但没有捏住，结果放跑了大鱼。5000点左右震荡要大些，大跌的时候，要敢于下手。今年不会有太大风险，已经拔高的票不要追，我很信任王国强，今年的几次大跌和高点他都预测准了。</FONT>
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