十分钟让你看懂中国经济形势
<SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">、</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">什么是经济发展</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">&</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">银行是什么？</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 简单的讲经济发展就是有钱，但钱从何来？钱只能印出来。那么到底是什么使印钞机不停的运转？</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> </SPAN> <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">6</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">、房价高涨的原动力是什么？</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 使房价上涨的动力很多，房价上涨对其有利的人就是动力之一，比如：为了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">和个人利益的地方政府、为了赚钱的开发商、炒房族、以至于买了房的所谓</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">房奴</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">都是是房价上涨的动力，可是最大的原动力不是这些，是外资，是美国的以攫取超额利润的各大财团。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 开发商作为商人，为了赚取高额利润不是什么伤天害理的事情，可是各行各业都有商人，难道想赚就有吗？那除非是神话。房地产业的开发商也一样，不是他们想赚多少就有多少的。根据价值规律，当商品的价格和价值严重背离时，会有一种趋向正常价格回归的力量钳制价格的上涨，可是在中国的房地产业，这种规律似乎不起作用，一个重要的原因是忽视了一个参考范围的原因，如果以中国经济本身而言确实打破了这个规律，可是目前的情况是有一股力量在维持着房地产业的价格，即托市，那么谁在托市呢？</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 谁能在房地产业失控能得到巨额利润的人就是托市的人。</SPAN> 通俗读本，慢慢琢麽。可见教科书有多难。 <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">、坐在华尔街办公室的财团们是如何吸干中国山区一个农民的血汗的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 毛主席说过：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">帝国主义没有睡大觉</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">而是天天在蠢蠢欲动</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">在图谋不轨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">想达到他们的罪恶目的。诚然他们的气焰的确没有以前那么嚣张</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">,</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">但他们确实在活动着。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">是不是冷战结束就代表着人类的和平得以实现呢？</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">一句上帝面前人人平等</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">就能掩盖帝国主义噬血的本质吗？人人平等的理念是对的，但它只不过是帝国主义用来欺骗人们的伎俩罢了，说到和做到永远是<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="1" NumberType="3" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="2" UnitName="码">两码</st1:chmetcnv>事。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 国际财团通过国际热钱涌入中国，使人民币加大发行量，然后通过房地产炒作，把中国的国内价格水平无限制的提高，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">的增长又一次使人民币的发行量被迫提高。国际财团心黑手狠，双管齐下，目的就是使中国经济热到烫手，热到让每个中国人为之疯狂。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 我们暂不去关心这个过程，我们放眼未来，看看这一过程的结果是什么样呢？换句话说财团的目的是什么呢？</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 很明显，中国人最不愿意看到的事情，就是财团们最乐见的结果。先做个假设，比如国际热钱在投资的中国房地产领域里上演最后的疯狂后，然后把房产成功解套全部变现，如果此时人民币兑美元的汇率达到美国预期最高时，汇率是热钱逃离时需要相乘的那个倍数，会发生什么谁都能想到，所有热钱会一夜之间全部兑换美元逃离。财团们会赚得沟满壕平，中国市场上除了钱就是钱，能遮住天的大把人民币将成为中国人民的噩梦。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 这是中国人最不愿意看到的事情，也是财团最乐见的结果。近期美国不断的通过政治、贸易等手段逼迫人民币升值，而中国政府迟迟不升值或小范围的升值，远远没有达到美国政府的预期，这是在出口处的中美之间的博弈。美国逼迫人民币升值的狼子野心昭然若揭！</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 顺便提一句，如果真的这个升值预期达到了，中国楼市将重演日本上世纪</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">90</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">年代崩盘的历史。只是那时中国经济也会像日本一样进入一个连续低迷不振的不归路。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 在这种攸关民族生存的问题上，政府会坐视不管吗？就算是退一步来讲，一个完全不负责任的政府遇到这种情况，因为这个资本运作同时也极大侵犯了政府的利益，也会拼命反搏的。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 那么中国政府会以什么样的方式来化解这一</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">经济危机</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">呢？请看下一节：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">在有关这场围绕房价和通货膨胀之间的各方博弈中可能选择的中庸路线</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">。</SPAN> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、什么是对外贸易？</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 有一天岛上的人发明了船，于是就到处划船跑，发现了另一个岛屿，那上面也有人，也有钞票，也像自己岛上这么活动。但自己岛上生产的东西多，那个岛上生产的东西少，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">元钱在自己的岛上能买</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">斤大米，那个岛上的一元钱只能买半斤大米，于是另外岛上的钱来这个岛上买东西时只能</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">2</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">元换</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">1</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">元才行。于是汇率出现了。算好汇率后，他们开始互相买卖东西到对方岛上，这就是对外贸易。对外贸易丰富了人们的生活生产需要，使交换活动到了一个空前的高潮。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></STRONG></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">7</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、房价一直涨下去，开发商会笑还是会哭？什么情况下会笑？什么情况下会哭？</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 在中国政府近几年来密集的几十道金牌的调控下，房价还是如脱了缰的野马一样狂奔不止。暂且不论何时能停止上涨的势头，毕竟房价在目前还是上涨的，所以我们就看看房价上涨不止会带来什么。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 首先：由于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">GDP</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">上涨，中国政府为了维持上文说的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">保持产品交换的继续</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">要不断地投放人民币，即开动印钞机。只要房地产这个石子还没有投入到大海里去，还有一定的流通性，那么就不会有通货膨胀的发生。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 其次：开发商会在这个过程中也赚取巨大的利润。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 再次：能看到的是，炒房族会赚钱、所谓的买房的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">房奴</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">会增值。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 都赚钱！可是在这个过程中到底谁亏了呢？钱从哪里来呢？如果你是有炒股的经验就会知道，如果投资价格和价值背离的商品，你赚的钱就是别人赔的钱，那么套用到房地产上，就是买房自住的人，现在看似增值，那是镜中月、水中花，你不变现就不是你的。再有就是当价格完全回归真实价值的时候，有时甚至会到真实价值一下，被高价房套住的投资者。还有一个就是开发商！</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 为什么说开发商也有赔钱呢？大家知道商人的本性是赚钱，赚取利润。如果一个商人投机一次就永远都不做这个生意了，他是赚钱了，可他不是商人，这种商业行为没有意义。由于商人的本性，所以赚来的钱会继续扩大再生产，在能赚钱的领域不断的加大投资。这个道理从生活中就可看出来，越是做大生意的人总喊没钱，因为要更大的流动资金来维持其扩大再生产的需要。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 所以一旦房价回归真实的价值之时，就是有一大批开发商崩溃之日。这个是不以任何人的意志和任何行为为转移的。如果现在有开发商逃离房地产业的角斗场，那么跑得慢的就是最后的输家。如果都不跑，就像击鼓传花一样，最后拿到接力棒的就是接盘者。有句话叫：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">出来混迟早是要还的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">。也许只不过是方式不一样，看谁的运气好而已。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 可是现在却没有任何的开发商赔钱的迹象，有的是开发商不断的赚钱，老百姓送钱都来不及。只是因为目前房价还在上涨，房产还在不断的流动。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 一个巨大的问题来了，这样不断上涨的房价何时是个头啊，请看下一节：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">“8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、坐在华尔街办公室的财团们是如何吸干中国山区一个农民的血汗的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">”<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></STRONG></P> <FONT color=#0000ff size=5><STRONG>哈哈，老茶，祝贺你10分钟就成为中国的经济学家和金融学权威了！！</STRONG></FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">不管你看到没看到，这已是最后的疯狂，我们从两方面来分析：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 第一，如果这场博弈以外资胜利而告终，那么中国经济将步日本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">90</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">年代持续下滑的深渊，由于外资撤走，房市赖以生存的支柱坍塌，房价会一落千丈，可到时候不管是开发商还是老百姓都将承受经济下滑之苦，持有的货币迅速贬值，即便房价落下，也不一定买的起。这是中国政府和中国人民不可接受的，也是无法接受的。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 第二，如果外资以失败而告终，即在汇率上把住出口，让房价回归真实价值，把外资同样套在中国，这才是胜利的前提。那么以美国财团为首的帝国主义噬血者必将疯狂报复，会在投资、出口等各方面对中国施加压力。我们今天人民币升值没有达到美国预期，已经导致中国出口到美国的产品受打压，进而引起了众多的贸易摩擦，由此可见一斑。我们知道，经济发展的三套马车是，投资、出口和消费，在投资、出口领域遭到报复会影响中国经济的发展，但我相信不会影响我们的发展速度，别忘了还有一套马车是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">消费</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">，房价下降后，如果你是爱国者，请现在保护好你的钱包，到时千万别羞羞答答，要果断地出手买房，中国经济会在消费领域异军突起，继续独占世界经济引擎的鳌头。</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> </SPAN> <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">刚开始这种钞票可以随时得兑换金银。大家都很放心，因为钞票就是金银。可是岛上金银的产量太小，当人们的交换活动更加频繁时，钞票不够用了，只能暂停交换。暂停交换的后果就是大家不生产别人想要的东西了，因为虽然别人用，但交换不出去，套用现在的话说就是经济发展减速了。</SPAN> <P>原文由 愚公 发表: <FONT color=#0000ff size=5><STRONG>哈哈，老茶，祝贺你10分钟就成为中国的经济学家和金融学权威了！！</STRONG></FONT> </P><P> </P><P> </P><P>我抛这块砖就是来引你D~~~~</P> <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">于是大家想了一个办法，成立一家钱庄，这个钱庄是大家的，由钱庄来发行钞票，印出的钞票借给想用钱的人，然后这个人有钱了再还给钱庄。于是银行就出现了。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 银行的出现，能保证交换活动更持续的进行，大家都拼命的生产，岛上的东西越来越多，银行根据产品的生产数量，不停的印制钞票，以保证交换能更深入的进行。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 后来人们的交换活动更频繁了，一家钱庄太少了，于是出现了很多钱庄，总要有个管钱庄的吧，于是指定一家钱庄管理其他钱庄，并且钞票只能由这家钱庄印刷，然后通过其他钱庄借给用钱的人，中央银行就这么也出现了。</SPAN> 原文由 茶的情诗 发表: <br><P>我抛这块砖就是来引你D~~~~</P><P></P><P><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff size=5>今天周四，我要到游泳馆参加训练了。</FONT></STRONG></P> 愚公你看看，劝都劝不住你，一口气买了三四套房，这下受教育了吧． <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">第一个关键的部分就是汇率，中国政府会严把汇率关，我们可以预期的是，人民币兑美元的汇率决不会过快升值，但会小幅升值，就是要稳定对方的情绪，如果一点不升，对方会狗急跳墙，如果升的过快，是给自己掘墓，所以为什么中国汇率升幅总是犹抱琵琶半遮面，看看美国政府的态度跟一个绑匪是多么的贴切，我要一瓶果汁，为什么拿来半瓶水。可又说不出什么来，毕竟还能暂时解渴。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 第二个关键是限制资产流动性，既然房地产能绑架中国经济，说明它举足轻重，限制房产的流通性，就可以限制资产的流动性，注意这里是两个概念，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">资产流动性</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">“</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">房产流通性</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">”</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">。两者完全不同，但又息息相关。房产流通性减弱，资产流动性减弱，那么需要印刷的人民币就减少。就像那个石子，不流通马上通胀，不涨价流通没问题，可是行不通，外资也不同意。既然是不断的上涨价格，只能一步步地限制房产流通，只要房产流通性少一点，通胀就会显现一点，然后再通过上调准备金率和加息等柔性政策来调整一点，用柳叶棉丝掌来化解泰森的一记重拳，以绵柔克强刚、化千钧于无形，这就是中国政府的策略（这好像是中国人最擅长的事情）。我们从官方媒体就能看到相关的消息，楼市签约率在下降，即流通性在下降，然后物价开始有所涨幅，如猪肉等副食产品，但央行马上上调准备金率和加息，来稳定物价。不知各位看官是否也看出些端倪。可预期的是，到完全化解危机之前，会不断地加息和调高准备金率，同时房产流通性会越来越弱，这个预言是否准确可在以后的央行政策上验证。等完全消除了由于经济过热导致的通货膨胀预期，那么就是房地产价格回归真实价值之时。</SPAN> <FONT size=5>经济学学习的不错?</FONT> <FONT size=5>我看了20分钟都没看懂!</FONT> <SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">假设一个岛上有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">1000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">口人，与世隔绝，人与人之间交换物品过活，但有时候你手里用来交换的东西不一定就是对方想要的，怎么办？于是人们就用都喜欢的金银作为交换的东西，于是交换方便了。但金银要磨损，携带也不方便，当交换活动频繁时，发现这个东西太繁琐，限制了交换活动，于是为了解决这个问题，想了一个办法，就是由岛上的管理者发行一种符号，用它来代替金银，于是钞票出现了。</SPAN> <SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">3</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">、什么是通货膨胀？</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 由于岛上生产的产品太多了，以至于没法准确估计到底该发行多少钞票，发行多了的时候，因为没有那么多产品可买，产品就开始涨价，发行少了呢就开始降价，为了保证价格稳定，央行要求各钱庄要把一部分钱放在央行里面用来调节产品的价格，根据价格情况多放和少放。这就是存款准备金率。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 可是有一部分聪明人开始怎么才能把钱弄到自己手上，他在海边捡了一颗石子，说这个石子值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万快钱，把它卖给了一个人，这个人觉得整个岛上的钱加一起也没有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万啊，怎么办，于是向钱庄借，钱庄也没有这么多钱，于是把印钞机打开，印了这</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万，借给了他买了这个石子。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> 然后这个人开始卖这个石子，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万卖给了第二个人，由于第一个卖石子的人把钱花了，所以岛上的钱多了，所以这一百万可以筹集到，多买些产品就有了。但当把这个石子以</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">200</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万转让的时候，钱庄只能又印了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万钞票，就这样钞票越印越多，可是当这个石子不停的流动转让时，大家并不觉得岛上的钱多，产品价格还是原来的那样。可是当这个石子不流通或流通的慢时，大家觉得钱多了，可是如果当持有石子的人把它扔到大海里，那就等于岛上凭空多出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">N</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">多个</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">100</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">万来，怎么办，央行最害怕的就是这颗石子没了。它没了岛上产品的价格就会飞涨，就会通货膨胀。那么持有石子的人就绑架了岛上的经济。</SPAN> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、房价能绑架中国经济吗？</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 中国的房地产已经使中国央行发行了太多的人民币，如果房价下降，等于把那颗石子投进了海里，那么多印出来的钱会使中国产品价格飞涨，会发生严重的通货膨胀。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 看似房价与石子毫无相干，可是他们的属性是一样的，就是价格和价值严重的背离。实际上房地产的崩盘受害最大的并不是中国的商业银行，而是整个中国经济体系。为什么政府迟迟没有把房价降下来，不是降不下来，如果真想降房价，只需要一道政令，房地产价格会在一夜之间土崩瓦解。可是后果谁能承担，严重通货膨胀谁来负责？</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 房地产业已经绑架了中国的经济，是无可置疑的，是客观实在的，没有人能改变。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 不管谁是总理，廉洁也好，贪污也好，都希望社会和谐，可这是一个棘手的问题。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; WORD-BREAK: break-all; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt">、房价和通货膨胀有关系吗？</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 可更棘手的问题还不仅仅在这里。如果降房价，面对的是马上的通货膨胀，可不降房价，那么面对的就是更严重的通货膨胀，何去何从？</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 所以最可靠的办法就是稳定房价，然后在社会产品增加时，减少货币的投放量，加上其他政策如加息、增加商业银行准备金率、缩小信贷规模等辅助手段，来使中国经济软着陆，这是最好的办法，我们看到的一切政令也是这个逻辑。不信的话，可以查阅一下近年来政府发布的一系列调控房地产业的措施。</SPAN></FONT><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> <BR><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"> 可是为什么房价不稳定而且更加的疯长呢？难道是开发商与政府在博弈吗？告诉你在中国没有人能和党叫板，几个肚子大点的开发商是没有这个实力的。实际上是幕后的另一只黑手在和中国政府博弈，这支黑手就是外资，以美国为代表的帝国主义攫取中国人民血汗的黑手。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal"><o:p><FONT size=3> </FONT></o:p></SPAN></STRONG></P>
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